Last week’s budget came and went, with lots of political point scoring. And then along came a new news item and the world moved on.
Budgets are important, even if not much is announced. Aside from being a regal requirement to ensure taxes are raised (irrespective of any changes), they set a direction of travel. What I was looking for was a clear direction to improve not just the overall economy, but growth in the economy for everyone.
We had a recession in the second half of last year, but the economy has now picked up, ending the recession (as expected by commentators). But the last seven quarters has seen the economy divided by the population – GDP per capita – decline.
This budget looks at how we can improve productivity.
The highlight is a cut to working people’s taxes – a further 2 percentage points off employees’ national insurance (taking the headline rate to 8%). Work must be rewarded, and this is a key measure.
In addition, £4.2 billion is being allocated to improve the efficiency of government departments and services. This is very much a deliverable pledge – witness the extraordinary improvements in the Passport Office, transformed from a basket case post covid to a model of efficiency. Of this allocation, £3.4 billion is earmarked for the NHS, predicted to reduce costs by up to £35 billion.
But the budget has to be delivered in the context a tough wider economic conditions.
The UK’s economy is one of the better performing of the G7, but like all countries across the world, the brutal reality of Covid and war in Ukraine has taken its toll on public finances. So giveaways had to be limited.
Despite that, things like pensions are up 8.5% this year and the triple lock on pension increases has meant that the state pension has doubled as a percentage of average wages since it was introduced by George Osborne when he was Chancellor. That is a significant achievement.
Inflation is coming down. Interest rates are set to fall (although not as far as the super low rates seen after the financial crash in 2008). The economy is starting to grow. We are investing in energy and sustainability. And help will carry on to support households through the cost of living crisis. We aren’t where we want to be yet, but we are making very good progress.