International diplomacy is a complicated thing. It follows generations of procedure, with countless diplomats and politicians building a code of conduct amongst those of us who keep the world safe. Of course, it doesn’t always work, but at least the diplomatic rules of engagement are broadly followed.
Until last week. The western alliance has been thrown into confusion by the unexpected announcement that the President of the United States (Donald Trump) had a 90 minute chat with the President of Russia (Vladimir Putin), the illegal invader of Ukraine and individual responsible for countless thousands of civilian and military deaths, as well as instability in the global energy markets. Now, no-one knows how to react.
However, we do know a few things. European leaders are now in dialogue with each other, realising that the most powerful individual in the west, Donald Trump, may not be relied on to assist Europe in what may become a tricky time of need. Trump seems to want to end the war, possibly on Russia’s terms. But we don’t really know. But what we can be sure of is that he wants his European allies to increase defence spending significantly.
To compare expenditure, we look at it as a percentage of our national economic output. We spend around 2% on defence and the government was looking at going up to 2.5%. In times of heightened military activity, it can go as high as 5%. But many argue that to go to 2.5% would simply bring the UK up to a moderately base level, not increase our capacity in any meaningful sense.
Keir Starmer has written that he will commit British troops to a peace keeping capacity, prepared to put our young men and women in harks way. But as one retired, and very senior general pointed out, peace keeping in a hot war is not a viable option, especially when you have so few resources.
Meanwhile other countries spend less on their defence than us.
All seem to agree that there has never been such an uncertain time. War is unpredictable, but at least we all know how the west will respond, not least because traditionally we speak to each other. But with a US president who will do whatever he likes, and speak to whomever he likes, it is difficult to know where all this will go, and how it will end. Uncertain times.